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Loss Reserving
Estimating the Future Payments on Claims
Loss reserving is the practice of estimating the future payments
on a block of claims. Usually the historical information about claims costs is recorded in
loss development triangles that show the emergence of costs over time for groups of claims
that arise in successive time intervals. The task is often to select a single number to represent
the estimate of the dollar cost of future payments on past claims. Other tasks include estimating
ranges for the likely total cost of future payments, estimating cost levels as a function of
several possible scenarios (such as medical cost inflation), or estimating the expected cost of
payments in excess of an aggregate threshold.
Applications:
- Valuation
- Strategic Planning
- Performance Measurement
- Ratemaking and Insurance Pricing
- Financial Reporting
- Tax Planning
* Valuation
* Strategic Planning
* Performance Measurement
* Ratemaking and Insurance Pricing
* Financial Reporting
* Tax Planning
Principles
CAS Committee on Loss Reserves
CAS Loss Reserving Seminar
Leadership by the Professionals at Oakley E. Van Slyke, Inc.
- LRT: Loss Reserve Testing
- Oakley E. Van Slyke and Giuseppe Russo, "Loss Reserve Testing: Beyond Popular Methods,"
Journal of Actuarial Practice (accepted March, 1999; not yet published)
(co-authored by Rob Weber of Weber Actuarial Consulting)
- Van Slyke, "A Clearer Focus on the Future: The Risks and Rewards of Loss Reserve Testing,"
Contingencies, September/October, 1997
- Paper "Regulatory Standards for Reserves,"
Casualty Actuarial Society discussion paper, 1987
- Ratemaking Seminars (various): Presentations on simple models of the loss development process
- Van Slyke developed econometric (non-linear regression) models of loss development triangles (1975-1976)
- Van Slyke developed loss reserving software for national actuarial consulting firm (1978/79)
* LRT: Loss Reserve Testing
* Oakley E. Van Slyke and Giuseppe Russo, "Loss Reserve Testing: Beyond Popular Methods,"
Journal of Actuarial Practice (accepted March, 1999; not yet published)
(co-authored by Rob Weber of Weber Actuarial Consulting)
* Van Slyke, "A Clearer Focus on the Future: The Risks and Rewards of Loss Reserve Testing,"
Contingencies, September/October, 1997
* Paper "Regulatory Standards for Reserves,"
Casualty Actuarial Society discussion paper, 1987
* Ratemaking Seminars (various): Presentations on simple models of the loss development process
* Van Slyke developed econometric (non-linear regression) models of loss development triangles (1975-1976)
* Van Slyke developed loss reserving software for national actuarial consulting firm (1978/79)
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